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George Bush tosses and turns in hisWhite House bed, tormented by a recurring nightmare: As he lights the national Christmas tree and steps away from the towering evergreen, it suddenly starts to teeter. Bush desperately strains to prop up the hulking 35-foot tree, but the swaying symbol of holiday good cheer overwhelms the president, crashes down and crushes him.Jolted awake by his nocturnal fright, a chastened Bush sits up in bed and screams, "I should have paid more attention to domestic issues!"

Consider this apparition George Bush's ghost of Christmas present. But for millions of Americans sleepingfitfully at night, their financial dreams in tatters, Bush's failure to monitor and manage the nation's recession-ravaged economy is all too real. Unemployment, for example, remains persistently high, and the nearly 10 million citizens who are out of work wonder when they will draw a paycheck again. Last week, the government reported that new unemployment-insurance claims rose to almost 500,000 in early November, the highest level in seven months. This fresh misery comes at atime when nearly 1 family in 10 is affected by the curse of joblessness and 23.6 million people depend on government food stamps to getby. The gut-wrenching anxiety has also taken its toll on those who are still working. The pervasive fear of layoffs, combined with the fact that real earnings declined for nine straight months in 1991, has shattered consumer confidence and pushed down real percapita spending this year.

A growing number of hard-pressed Americans blame Bush for their plight. Since the gulf war ended, the president's approval rating has plummeted from 68 percent to 47 percent. Nearly two thirds of voters now disapprove of his handling of theeconomy. And, in some surveys, Bush is running dead even with unnamed Democratic challengers.

These poll numbers scare the White House as much as the economic statistics do, yet the president, who is receiving conflicting advice from warring factions within his administration, is dealing with the nation's sick economy inan almost schizophrenic manner (story, Page 22). One day, Bush asserts that his proposals for fostering economic growth don't need to be unveiled until late January, despite congressional pressure from liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans for more immediate action. Then, in a sudden change of course, a concerned president calls for reduced interest rates on credit cards to stimulate much needed consumer demand. This ill-conceived idea leads to Senatepassage of an interest rate cap on credit cards, which precipitates the fifth stock market (story, Page 21). In an effort to calm Wall Street and thenation, Bush shifts rhetorical gears once again, stating this time that "the fundamentals are there" for economic recovery. Many analysts, investors and consumers disagree with this perception. "There's a lot of feeling that [the administration] is in fairyland within the Beltway," says economist A. Gary Shilling. "The data [the White House] islooking at are not reflective of reality."

Poor performance. The data that the Democrats are almost certainly poring over are more grim than Grimm. They show that during the Bush presidency real gross national product has expanded at an annual rateof just 0.5 percent, the worst economic growth performance of any administration since World War II. This is also the only postwar White House to preside over falling per real disposable income. And, the once indefatigable American job machine has virtually ground to a halt since Bush took office in January 1989. During the president's term, payroll employmenthas grown at a scant 0.6 percent clip, the lowest rate since the Truman years.

Many analysts believe that economic conditions aren't likely to improve much before the presidential election next November. The economy grew at aslow 2.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, but a slew of damaging new statistics indicate that a perilous period may lie ahead. A number of experts, for example, agree that GNP will increase by 1 percent at most during the fourth quarter--if it grows at all. One key factor will be auto sales, which plunged 13.4 percent during the first half of November. Without a resurgent Detroit, the economy may not be able to stage a meaningfulrecovery. "The fourth quarter is the point of vulnerability," says Laurence Meyer, a St. Louis-based economist. "It will tell us if we keep this recovery or relapse into the second leg of a double-dipdownturn."

The nation's immediate economic fate will, to a large extent, depend on how the manufacturing sector fares. After recovering last summer, the industrial production index swooned again, and it has been flat throughout the fall, barely growing at all. In addition, factory capacity is now at the lowest level -- 79.6 percent -- of the past four months. With production stalled and plant utilizationdown, thousands more workers will be sentenced to unemployment. In the coming weeks, for example, IBM is expected to unveil a program that will slash 20,000 jobs next year on top of the more than 20,000 itis eliminating this year. Big Blue's big ax will chop its worldwide employee total to 330,000.

Fewer workers reduce the need for new factories and equipment. But these capital-intensive investments traditionally drive the business cycle and are the key economic catalysts for both recession and recovery. With capital spending weak -- down an estimated 2.6 percent in 1991 -- the prospects for a robustrebound in 1992 are bleak. American Airlines, one of the strongest domestic carriers ofthe 1980s, for example, plans to hack more than billion worth of big-ticket expenditures off its balance sheet.

Debt debacle. The staggering buildup of company debt during the past decade is also retarding capital spending. The debt-to-net-worth ratio for nonfinancial corporate businesses is at a record level of 54.5 percent, compared with just31 percent during the 1981-82 recession, and many leveraged firms today are using their meager cash flow to pay interest costs instead of investing it in equipment. "The accumulation of debt is acting as a wet blanket," saysBruce Steinberg, an economist with Merrill Lynch. "It's smothering the capacity of the economy to get a self-sustaining recovery going."

Massive layoffs and severe spending cuts enable companies to improve their bottom line. But if corporate America, in search of short-term earnings, continues to aggressively scale back its workforce and pare down its outlays in the face of weak demand, the stalled economy could take a turn for the worse and a double-dip recession could result. Low inflation, currently running at around 3 percent, is putting additional pressure on corporate earnings. That's because firms aren't able to easily raise prices and fatten profit margins. Slow price growth and slack demand pushed company earnings down by 10.4 percent from thethird quarter of 1990 to the third quarter of 1991.

Christmas will be crucial to the financial health and well-being of many companies this year, and no one knows this better than the nation's ailing retailers. As the holiday selling season drew near, most stores engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken with recession-wracked American consumers. To protectshrinking profit margins, merchants tried to forestall major markdowns, while cost-conscious shoppers refused to purchaseuntil prices were slashed. The retailers blinked first. Today, stores are running intensive promotional campaigns to tempt consumers.

Retailers may be pressured into deeper discounts and additional consumer concessions in the next few weeks if sales continue to tumble and inventories, which jumped a sharp 1.5 percent in September, continue to build up. This will exacerbate the industry'spressing profit problems and lead to further layoffs. Over the past year, merchants have trimmed their payrolls by 371,000 jobs.

Plastic purchases. Consumers have stayed out of the stores largely because they are still drowning in debt after the spending sprees of the past decade. Consumer installment debt, combined with mortgage obligations, currentlytotal a record 87 percent of personal disposable income. This awesome debt load has skyrocketed since the bottom of the 1981-82 recession, when it stood at just 61 percent of personal disposable income. While overall consumer installment credit has been dropping, largely because of adecline in auto lending, cash-strapped consumers are increasingly relying on credit cards to help pay day-to-day bills. That helps explain why plastic debt has jumped 7 percent on an annualized basis during this recession year.

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